When Markets Fall, Do Collectible Cars Preserve Value?
What Four Major Market Downturns Tell Us About Collectible Vehicle Investments
The ASX lost $97 billion+ in value today (Monday, 07 April 2025), following Thursday's (03 April 2025) largest single-day drops in U.S. markets since the COVID crash of March 2020. Since mid-January, global stock indices have been in decline — pressured by inflation concerns, uncertain interest rate policy, and growing geopolitical tensions.1,2
Change In Global Stock Indices Since Mid-January
Source: The New York Times "U.S. Stocks Nose-Dived"
These headlines are a stark reminder that public markets are never immune to sudden sentiment shifts — even after prolonged periods of growth.
The volatility of stock markets is a familiar story for many—and for me, it’s personal. A significant setback in the public markets was the catalyst that pushed me to look beyond traditional asset classes and reconsider my long-time passion for vehicles as more than just a hobby. Through first-hand experience, I came to believe in the benefits of holding a tangible asset – the low volatility and the staying power of value over time.1,3 That realisation ultimately inspired the creation of CHROME TEMPLE. (You can read my genesis story here)
Since then, a growing body of research has supported what I observed first-hand: investment-grade collectible vehicles have the potential to enhance portfolio diversification and reduce exposure to market volatility.1,3
But experience alone isn’t enough. So, in light of recent market events, I challenged our analyst team to answer a critical question for investors and potential investors in collectible cars:
During sharp stock market declines, do investment grade vehicles preserve value?
Looking Back: Market Shocks1,4,5
To explore this, we looked at some of the most significant stock market downturns in recent history:
- The COVID Crash (February 2020 – March 2020): The fastest equity market crash in history, triggered by the global spread of COVID-19. Panic-driven selloffs and widespread lockdowns led to a ~34% decline from peak to trough.
- The 2022 Bear Market (January 2022 – October 2022): A sustained ~25% drop, driven by surging inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and geopolitical instability following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- The 2018 Selloff (September 2018 - December 2018): A ~20% decline sparked by Federal Reserve rate hikes, escalating U.S.–China trade tensions, and global growth concerns.
- The 2015-2016 Correction (May 2015 - February 2016): Triggered by a slowing Chinese economy and plunging oil prices, this period saw a ~13% correction amid global deflationary fears.
Each of these downturns reflects a unique set of economic and geopolitical challenges — yet all share a common thread: rapid equity market declines and widespread investor uncertainty.
The Car Index vs. Global Markets
We then compared the collectible car market index — representing blue-chip, investment-grade collectible vehicles — across the same period.
Change In Global Stock Indices At Various Market Crash Periods
From our perspective, the results painted a compelling picture:
- While major stock indices fell, the car index outperformed the stock indices.
- Price volatility was markedly lower in the car index compared to equities.
- The car market exhibited a degree of insulation from macro-driven panic, we believe this is likely due to their tangibility, scarcity, and lack of direct correlation to financial markets.
Why It Matters
None of this suggests collectible cars are risk-free. Like all investments, they require informed decisions, smart entry points, and thoughtful strategy.
But history suggests that in periods of heightened market stress, collectible cars have the potential to demonstrate:
- Low correlation to public equities
- Resilience in pricing and demand
- Steadiness in investor and collector sentiment
In a time where diversification and downside protection are front of mind, we believe that the role of tangible alternative assets —has never been more relevant.
If you’d like to learn more about vehicles as an investment, click here to start investing.
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Blog Article Disclaimers & References
Any one thinking about making a vehicle investment should carefully review their options and seek professional advice prior to making any investment decision or vehicle purchase. No reliance may be placed on this article for any purpose. Information in this article has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, circumstances, financial situation or needs of any person, and may differ to information obtained elsewhere.
This article may also contain statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations with respect to market conditions. Past performance and/or forward-looking statements are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The projections provided are based on the author’s assumptions and analysis. These projections are forward-looking statements and are not guarantees of future performance. The actual results may differ significantly from the projections due to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to market conditions, economic factors, and changes in regulatory environments.
This article reflects the author's opinions on a particular subject matter. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the performance of the CHROME TEMPLE Investments Mach 1 Fund (the “Fund”) nor reflect the opinions of the Fund’s Trustee (Specialised Investment and Lending Corporation Ltd) or their affiliates.
+ Correction: An earlier version of the blog article quoted the ASX loss as being $87bn, which was the figure available at the time of posting and before the market closed. The loss has been updated to $97bn to reflect the final figure after market close.
1 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
2 New York Times. “U.S. stocks nose-dived after Trump’s tariffs rollout” 04 April 2025. AFR. "ASX holds 4pc loss" 07 April 2025.
3 Credit Suisse 2022 Collectibles Amid Inflation Report.
4 The Street – COVID-19 Stock Market Crash of 2020. Bragg Financial – Market & Economy Q2 2022. CNBC – Markets Drop in Worst Christmas Eve Trading Ever (Dec 24, 2018). Financial Times – Markets Turbulence in Early 2016
5 S&P500 percentage change in price from peak to trough during each respective period (source Wall Street Journal).
6 For the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200, the data shown represents the percentage change in price from 19 February 2020 to 23 March 2020 the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200 using month end intervals between these dates. The data for these indices comes from the Wall Street Journal. For Cars, the data shown represents the percentage change in price of the HAGI Top index produced by Historic Automobile Group International ("HAGI") from January 2020 to March 2020. HAGI only publishes values monthly.
7 For the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200, the data shown represents the percentage change in price from 03 January 2022 to 12 October 2022 the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200 using month end intervals between these dates. The data for these indices comes from the Wall Street Journal. For Cars, the data shown represents the percentage change in price of the HAGI Top index produced by Historic Automobile Group International ("HAGI") from December 2021 to October 2022. HAGI only publishes values monthly.
8 For the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200, the data shown represents the percentage change in price from 20 September 2018 to 24 December 2018 the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200 using month end intervals between these dates. The data for these indices comes from the Wall Street Journal. For Cars, the data shown represents the percentage change in price of the HAGI Top index produced by Historic Automobile Group International ("HAGI") from August 2018 to December 2018. HAGI only publishes values monthly.
9 For the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200, the data shown represents the percentage change in price from 21 April 2015 to 11 February 2016 the S&P500, FTSE100 and S&P/ASX200 using month end intervals between these dates. The data for these indices comes from the Wall Street Journal. For Cars, the data shown represents the percentage change in price of the HAGI Top index produced by Historic Automobile Group International ("HAGI") from March 2015 to February 2016. HAGI only publishes values monthly.